An Asymmetric Approach to Evaluate Sectoral CO2 Emissions in Turkey

Abstract

The increase in population and economic growth are significant factors that contribute to the deterioration of the environment, primarily through the emission of carbon pollutants. Therefore, the overuse of natural resources, degradation of natural ecosystems, and the increasing release of harmful gases threaten our ability to protect the environment for future generations. Although there is a global agreement on the need for clean and carbon-free energy systems to achieve sustainable development, emerging countries persist in giving more priority to economic objectives rather than environmental preservation. This research aimed to explore strategies to mitigate sector-specific emissions and ecological deterioration in Turkey, where enforcing environmental regulations has proven inadequate. This quantitative study analysed symmetric and asymmetric interactions between sectoral emissions and sectoral value added per capita, GDP per capita, and human capital with the nonlinear autoregressive distributed (NARDL) time series method in Turkey. The connections between emissions from different sectors, the value contributed to the economy, the income per person, and the growth of human capital were examined in the research. The study's findings indicated that policies to increase production and develop human capital are effective in the short term for reducing carbon emissions in the services sector. Over time, policies that prioritise raising income levels and building up human capital have been successful. Analyses of strategies to reduce agricultural emissions reveal that implementing short-term investments in human capital and long-term revenue increases are successful policies to reduce emission levels in the industry. Regarding the industry, past levels of emissions in the immediate future exert a constraint on managing the present period's emission levels. Given the asymmetrical impacts, it is evident that people whose quality of life improves through investments in human capital are more likely to prioritise environmental sustainability and adopt practices that reduce emissions in production. Thus, it is evident that the enhancement of human capital may serve as a significant policy tool across all industries.