Forecasting Changes in the Macroeconomic Situation in Switzerland: The Smart Economy of the Future
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.57125/FEL.2023.03.25.09Keywords:
digital transformation, innovation, macroeconomic forecasts, Smart Economy, sustainable development, Switzerland, economic growthAbstract
This work explores predictions for Switzerland's economy as a whole through the lens of the Smart Economy. It focuses on how digital transformation, innovation, and sustainable development will help the economy grow in the future. A lot of different methods were used in the study, such as searching databases like Scopus and Web of Science, text mining, sentiment analysis. The results show that Switzerland's strong ICT infrastructure, innovation ecosystem, and dedication to sustainability are very important for the country's economic growth and stability. Based on quantitative analysis, GDP growth was expected to be between 1.5% and 3.0%, inflation rates to be between 0.5% and 1.5%, and employment growth to be between 1.0% and 2.5%. Comparative and scenario analyses showed that Smart Economy practices have a positive effect on macroeconomic indicators. The results show how important it is for Switzerland to invest in digital infrastructure, support research and development, and push for policies that will last. Policymakers and other interested parties can use these insights to help them make the move to a Smart Economy.
References
Abdel Hakeem, S. A., Hussein, H. H., & Kim, H. (2022). Security requirements and challenges of 6G technologies and applications. Sensors, 22(5), Article 1969. https://doi.org/10.3390/s22051969
Armingeon, K., Sager, F., & Zohlnhöfer, R. (2022). Switzerland report: Sustainable governance indicators 2022. Gütersloh: Bertelsmann Stiftung. https://doi.org/10.11586/2022120
Bacchetta, P., Benhima, K., & Renne, J. P. (2022). Understanding Swiss real interest rates in a financially globalized world. Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, 158(1), Article 16. https://doi.org/10.1186/s41937-022-00095-3
Buchholz, S. (2022). Tech trends 2022: Peering through the lens of government. Deloitte Insights. https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/us/Documents/public-sector/us-gps-government-tech-trends-2022.pdf
Balango, T. K. (2020). The relationship between the Ethiopian economic growth and the decrease in purchasing power of consumers. Journal of Modern Accounting and Auditing, 16(7), 310–322. https://doi.org/10.17265/1548-6583/2020.07.002
Beck, M., & Garzik, L. (2022). Zurich innovation System. In L. Garzik (Ed.), Successful Innovation Systems: A Resource-oriented and Regional Perspective for Policy and Practice (pp. 319–339). Cham: Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-80639-2_17
Benlagha, N., & Hemrit, W. (2020). Internet use and insurance growth: Evidence from a panel of OECD countries. Technology in Society, 62, Article 101289. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techsoc.2020.101289
Borowiecki, R., Siuta-Tokarska, B., Maroń, J., Suder, M., Thier, A., & Żmija, K. (2021). Developing digital economy and society in the light of the issue of digital convergence of the markets in the European Union countries. Energies, 14(9), Article 2717. https://doi.org/10.3390/en14092717
Bürer, M. J., de Lapparent, M., Capezzali, M., & Carpita, M. (2022). Governance drivers and barriers for business model transformation in the energy sector. In P. Hettich & A. Kachi (Eds.), Swiss Energy Governance: Political, Economic and Legal Challenges and Opportunities in the Energy Transition (pp. 195–243). Cham: Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-80787-0_10
Cahlikova, T. (2021). The introduction of e-Government in Switzerland. In The Introduction of e-Government in Switzerland (pp. 69–113). Cham: Palgrave Macmillan. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-78624-3_4
Campbell-Johnston, K., Vermeulen, W. J., Reike, D., & Brullot, S. (2020). The circular economy and cascading: Towards a framework. Resources, Conservation & Recycling: X, 7, Article 100038. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rcrx.2020.100038
Cauchon, N. S., Oghamian, S., Hassanpour, S., & Abernathy, M. (2019). Innovation in chemistry, manufacturing, and controls—a regulatory perspective from industry. Journal of Pharmaceutical Sciences, 108(7), 2207–2237. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.xphs.2019.02.007
Cohen, Y., Faccio, M., Pilati, F., & Yao, X. (2019). Design and management of digital manufacturing and assembly systems in the Industry 4.0 era. The International Journal of Advanced Manufacturing Technology, 105, 3565–3577. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00170-019-04595-0
de Weck, O. L. (2022). Patents and intellectual property. In Technology Roadmapping and Development: A Quantitative Approach to the Management of Technology (pp. 119–152). Cham: Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-88346-1_5
Eisenmenger, N., Pichler, M., Krenmayr, N., Noll, D., Plank, B., Schalmann, E. ... Gingrich, S. (2020). The Sustainable Development Goals prioritize economic growth over sustainable resource use: A critical reflection on the SDGs from a socio-ecological perspective. Sustainability Science, 15(4), 1101–1110. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-020-00813-x
Ekardt, F. (2019). Sustainability: Transformation, governance, ethics, law. Cham: Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-19277-8
ElMassah, S., & Mohieldin, M. (2020). Digital transformation and localizing the sustainable development goals (SDGs). Ecological Economics, 169, Article 106490. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2019.106490
Ergemen, Y. E. (2022). Forecasting inflation rates with multi-level international dependence. Economics Letters, 214, Article 110456. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2022.110456
Fernandez, J. A., David, E. M., & Chen, S. (2022). Innovation around the world. In Innovative to the Core: Stories from China and the World (pp. 21–51). Emerald Publishing Limited. https://doi.org/10.1108/978-1-80455-081-620221002
Federal Statistical Office. (n.d.). Prices. https://www.bfs.admin.ch/bfs/en/home/statistics/prices.html
Ferrandis, J., Ramos, S., & Feijóo, C. (2021). An assessment of estimation models and investment gaps for the deployment of high-speed broadband networks in NUTS3 regions to meet the objectives of the European Gigabit Society. Telecommunications Policy, 45(7), Article 102170. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.telpol.2021.102170
Fioramonti, L., Coscieme, L., & Mortensen, L. F. (2019). From gross domestic product to wellbeing: How alternative indicators can help connect the new economy with the Sustainable Development Goals. The Anthropocene Review, 6(3), 207–222. https://doi.org/10.1177/2053019619869947
Garnitz, J., Lehmann, R., & Wohlrabe, K. (2019). Forecasting GDP all over the world using leading indicators based on comprehensive survey data. Applied Economics, 51(54), 5802–5816. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2019.1624915
Grigorescu, A., Pelinescu, E., Ion, A. E., & Dutcas, M. F. (2021). Human capital in digital economy: An empirical analysis of central and eastern European countries from the European Union. Sustainability, 13(4), Article 2020. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13042020
Guttmann, R. (2022). The new deflation: From great recession to global pandemic. In Multi-Polar Capitalism: The End of the Dollar Standard (pp. 117–167). Cham: Palgrave Macmillan. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-88247-1_4
Habibi, F., & Zabardast, M. A. (2020). Digitalization, education and economic growth: A comparative analysis of Middle East and OECD countries. Technology in Society, 63, Article 101370. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techsoc.2020.101370
Harting, P. (2021). Macroeconomic stabilization and long-term growth: The role of policy design. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 25(4), 924–969. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1365100519000488
Hatamleh, O., & Tilesch, G. (2020). Betweenbrains: Taking back our AI future. Dr. George Tilesch.
Hofer, S., Fricker, L., Schmidt, B., Burkhard, B., & Brahme, H. (2020). The performance of spin-off companies at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich. ETH Zurich. https://ethz.ch/content/dam/ethz/main/industry/entrepreneurship/ETH-spin-offs/dokumente/ETH_spin-off_study_2020.pdf
Hubschmid-Vierheilig, E., Rohrer, M., & Mitsakis, F. (2020). Digital competence revolution and human resource development in the United Kingdom and Switzerland. In M. Loon, J. Stewart, & S. Nachmias (Eds.), The Future of HRD, Volume I: Innovation and Technology (pp. 53-91). Cham: Palgrave Macmillan. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-52410-4_3
IMF. (2022). Switzerland: 2022 Article IV consultation-press release; staff report; and statement by the executive director for Switzerland (Country report No. 2022/171). https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/CR/Issues/2022/06/15/Switzerland-2022-Article-IV-Consultation-Press-Release-Staff-Report-and-Statement-by-the-519648
Jafari-Sadeghi, V., Garcia-Perez, A., Candelo, E., & Couturier, J. (2021). Exploring the impact of digital transformation on technology entrepreneurship and technological market expansion: The role of technology readiness, exploration and exploitation. Journal of Business Research, 124, 100–111. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2020.11.020
Jagatheesaperumal, S. K., Rahouti, M., Ahmad, K., Al-Fuqaha, A., & Guizani, M. (2021). The duo of artificial intelligence and big data for industry 4.0: Applications, techniques, challenges, and future research directions. IEEE Internet of Things Journal, 9(15), 12861–12885. https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/abstract/document/9667102
Jarchow, S., & Röhm, A. (2019). Patent-based investment funds: From invention to innovation. The Journal of Technology Transfer, 44, 404–433. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10961-018-9691-3
Javaid, M., Haleem, A., Singh, R. P., Suman, R., & Khan, S. (2022). A review of Blockchain Technology applications for financial services. BenchCouncil Transactions on Benchmarks, Standards and Evaluations, 2(3), Article 100073. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tbench.2022.100073
Kahle, J. H., Marcon, E., Ghezzi, A., & Frank, A. G. (2020). Smart Products value creation in SMEs innovation ecosystems. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 156, Article 120024. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2020.120024
Kahn, M. E., Mohaddes, K., Ng, R. N., Pesaran, M. H., Raissi, M., & Yang, J. C. (2021). Long-term macroeconomic effects of climate change: A cross-country analysis. Energy Economics, 104, Article 105624. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105624
Kalkanci, B., Rahmani, M., & Toktay, L. B. (2019). The role of inclusive innovation in promoting social sustainability. Production and Operations Management, 28(12), 2960–2982. https://doi.org/10.1111/poms.13112
Kraus, S., Jones, P., Kailer, N., Weinmann, A., Chaparro-Banegas, N., & Roig-Tierno, N. (2021). Digital transformation: An overview of the current state of the art of research. Sage Open, 11(3). https://doi.org/10.1177/21582440211047576
Lemma, V. (2020). European approaches to FinTech: The role of regulation and the evolution of supervision. In FinTech Regulation: Exploring New Challenges of the Capital Markets Union (pp. 143–243). Cham: Palgrave Macmillan. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-42347-6_4
Lewis, C., & Ollivaud, P. (2020). Policies for Switzerland’s ageing society (Working paper No. 1600). OECD. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1787/3f8a12c6-en
Liu, X., & Chen, H. (2020). Sharing economy: Promote its potential to sustainability by regulation. Sustainability, 12(3), Article 919. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12030919
Luo, S., Yimamu, N., Li, Y., Wu, H., Irfan, M., & Hao, Y. (2022). Digitalization and sustainable development: How could digital economy development improve green innovation in China?. Business Strategy and the Environment, 32(4), 1847–1871. https://doi.org/10.1002/bse.3223
Lynn, T., Rosati, P., Conway, E., Curran, D., Fox, G., & O'Gorman, C. (2022). Digital towns: Accelerating and measuring the digital transformation of rural societies and economies. Cham: Palgrave Macmillan. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-91247-5
Macchiarelli, C., Naisbitt, B., Boshoff, J., Hurst, I., Liadze, I., Mao, X., & Juanino, P. S. (2022). Global economic outlook. National Institute Economic Review, 261, Article e2. https://doi.org/10.1017/nie.2023.7
Magazzino, C., & Falcone, P. M. (2022). Assessing the relationship among waste generation, wealth, and GHG emissions in Switzerland: Some policy proposals for the optimization of the municipal solid waste in a circular economy perspective. Journal of Cleaner Production, 351, Article 131555. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2022.131555
Makieła, Z., Stuss, M. M., & Borowiecki, R. (2022). Sustainability, technology and innovation 4.0. Routledge.
McFadden, J., Casalini, F., Griffin, T., & Antón, J. (2022). The digitalisation of agriculture: A literature review and emerging policy issues (Working paper No. 176). Paris: OECD Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1787/285cc27d-en
Nisanci, D. A. (2021). FSB task force on climate-related financial disclosures. In J. W. Dash (Ed.), World Scientific Encyclopedia of Climate Change: Case Studies of Climate Risk, Action, and Opportunity Volume 3 (pp. 3–8). World Scientific Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1142/9789811213960_0001
OECD. (2022). OECD economic outlook 2022, Volume 2022 Issue 2. Paris: OECD Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1787/f6da2159-en
Ogunmakinde, O. E., Egbelakin, T., & Sher, W. (2022). Contributions of the circular economy to the UN sustainable development goals through sustainable construction. Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 178, Article 106023. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2021.106023
Ostropolska, Y. (2021). Problems and prospects of development of SMART economy in the Post-Socialist States (challenges of the future). Futurity Economics & Law, 1(3), 4–16. https://doi.org/10.57125/FEL.2021.09.25.01%20
Pereira, C. S., Durão, N., Moreira, F., & Veloso, B. (2022). The importance of digital transformation in international business. Sustainability, 14(2), Article 834. https://doi.org/10.3390/su14020834
Puschmann, T., Hoffmann, C. H., & Khmarskyi, V. (2020). How green FinTech can alleviate the impact of climate change—the case of Switzerland. Sustainability, 12(24), Article 10691. https://doi.org/10.3390/su122410691
Raffaelli, R. (2019). Technology reemergence: Creating new value for old technologies in Swiss mechanical watchmaking, 1970–2008. Administrative Science Quarterly, 64(3), 576–618. https://doi.org/10.1177/0001839218778505
Raimondo, C., & Coggi, P. (2022). The Swiss banking experience and lessons learned for emerging markets: the roles of digitalization and sustainability. In D. Nguyen (Ed.), Handbook of Banking and Finance in Emerging Markets (pp. 597–618). Edward Elgar Publishing. https://doi.org/10.4337/9781800880900.00042
Reebadiya, D., Rathod, T., Gupta, R., Tanwar, S., & Kumar, N. (2021). Blockchain-based secure and intelligent sensing scheme for autonomous vehicles activity tracking beyond 5g networks. Peer-to-Peer Networking and Applications, 14(5), 2757–2774. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12083-021-01073-x
Rehman Khan, S. A., Ahmad, Z., Sheikh, A. A., & Yu, Z. (2022). Digital transformation, smart technologies, and eco-innovation are paving the way toward sustainable supply chain performance. Science Progress, 105(4). https://doi.org/10.1177/00368504221145648
Rendtorff, J. D. (2019). Sustainable development goals and progressive business models for economic transformation. Local Economy, 34(6), 510–524. https://doi.org/10.1177/0269094219882270
Rodriguez-Anton, J. M., Rubio-Andrada, L., Celemín-Pedroche, M. S., & Alonso-Almeida, M. D. M. (2019). Analysis of the relations between circular economy and sustainable development goals. International Journal of Sustainable Development & World Ecology, 26(8), 708–720. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504509.2019.1666754
Ryan, M., Antoniou, J., Brooks, L., Jiya, T., Macnish, K., & Stahl, B. (2020). The ethical balance of using smart information systems for promoting the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals. Sustainability, 12(12), Article 4826. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12124826
Salins, V., & Sila, U. (2022). Fostering a strong labour market to support the recovery and sustain growth in Switzerland (Working paper No. 1720). Paris: OECD Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1787/aefe5c44-en
Saner, R., Yiu, L., & Rush, L. (2020). Population ageing and a lack of semi-skilled workers in Switzerland: Opportunities for refugees?. Career Development International, 25(1), 24–31. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.alcr.2019.03.003
Sangwan, S. R., & Bhatia, M. P. S. (2020). Sustainable development in industry 4.0. In A. Nayyar & A. Kumar (Eds.), A roadmap to industry 4.0: Smart production, sharp business and sustainable development (pp. 39–56). Cham: Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-14544-6_3
Saric, J., Käser, F., Lys, J. A., Utzinger, J., & Breu, T. (2021). Synergising research and service activities at swiss research institutions to accelerate sustainable development. Sustainability, 13(17), Article 9626. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13179626
Shehab, M. J., Kassem, I., Kutty, A. A., Kucukvar, M., Onat, N., & Khattab, T. (2021). 5G networks towards smart and sustainable cities: A review of recent developments, applications and future perspectives. IEEE Access, 10, 2987–3006. https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/abstract/document/9665730/
Sheth, J. N., & Parvatiyar, A. (2021). Sustainable marketing: Market-driving, not market-driven. Journal of Macromarketing, 41(1), 150–165. https://doi.org/10.1177/0276146720961836
Solly, A. (2021). Land use challenges, sustainability and the spatial planning balancing act: Insights from Sweden and Switzerland. European Planning Studies, 29(4), 637–653. https://doi.org/10.1080/09654313.2020.1765992
Stern, N., & Valero, A. (2021). Innovation, growth and the transition to net-zero emissions. Research Policy, 50(9), Article 104293. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.respol.2021.104293
Teixeira, J. E., & Tavares-Lehmann, A. T. C. (2022). Industry 4.0 in the European union: Policies and national strategies. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 180, Article 121664. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2022.121664
Toh, C. K. (2022). Smart city indexes, criteria, indicators and rankings: An in‐depth investigation and analysis. IET Smart Cities, 4(3), 211–228. https://doi.org/10.1049/smc2.12036
Valle-Cruz, D. (2019). Public value of e-government services through emerging technologies. International Journal of Public Sector Management, 32(5), 530–545. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJPSM-03-2018-0072
Warjiyo, P., & Juhro, S. M. (2019). Monetary policy strategic framework. Central Bank Policy: Theory and Practice, 161–191. https://doi.org/10.1108/978-1-78973-751-620191010
World Economic Forum. (2022). Annual report 2021–2022. https://www.weforum.org/publications/annual-report-2021-2022/
Wildenauer, A. A., & Basl, J. (2021). An exploration of COVID-19 and its consideration as a black swan for the construction industry in Switzerland. International Journal of Digital Innovation in the Built Environment (IJDIBE), 10(1), 62–82. https://doi.org/10.4018/IJDIBE.20210101.oa1
Ye, L., & Yang, H. (2020). From digital divide to social inclusion: A tale of mobile platform empowerment in rural areas. Sustainability, 12(6), Article 2424. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12062424
Zeng, J., Tavalaei, M. M., & Khan, Z. (2021). Sharing economy platform firms and their resource orchestration approaches. Journal of Business Research, 136, 451–465. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2021.07.054
Zhou, Y. (2022). The application trend of digital finance and technological innovation in the development of green economy. Journal of Environmental and Public Health, 2022(1), Article 1064558. https://doi.org/10.1155/2022/1064558
Ziolo, M., Filipiak, B. Z., Bąk, I., & Cheba, K. (2019). How to design more sustainable financial systems: The roles of environmental, social, and governance factors in the decision-making process. Sustainability, 11(20), Article 5604. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11205604
Züttel, A., Gallandat, N., Dyson, P. J., Schlapbach, L., Gilgen, P. W., & Orimo, S. I. (2022). Future Swiss Energy Economy: The challenge of storing renewable energy. Frontiers in Energy Research, 9, Article 785908. https://doi.org/10.3389/fenrg.2021.785908
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2023 author

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
